Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $69,849$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.06 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{61,553.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(61,553.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,845$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(3.58 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(80.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,629.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,629.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $42,414$ on 2020-08-02

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $306,309$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(7.48 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{288,951.5}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.4)}}\) (asimptote \(288,951.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $46,286$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,057.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 48.1)}}\) (asimptote \(44,057.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $258,579$ on 2020-08-02

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $288,522$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(9.68 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(87.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{248,288.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(248,288.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,445$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,850.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(27,850.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $109,701$ on 2020-08-02

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $248,070$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(8.7 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(89.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{238,290.8}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 44.0)}}\) (asimptote \(238,290.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,154$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,364.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(34,364.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,456$ on 2020-08-02

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $80,422$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(7.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,723.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 98.6)}}\) (asimptote \(91,723.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,743$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,555.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 54.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,555.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $74,679$ on 2020-08-02

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $225,198$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(6.88 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{199,311.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(199,311.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,268$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.09 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(82.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,390.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.8)}}\) (asimptote \(29,390.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $113,166$ on 2020-08-02

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $55,408$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.7 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(78.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{49,977.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(49,977.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,169$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(2.29 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,078.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,078.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $49,033$ on 2020-08-02

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $26,162$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(8.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,364.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(25,364.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,763$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(547 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,715.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,715.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,035$ on 2020-08-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Belarus recovered 82%
Portugal recovered 47%
Armenia recovered 30%
Russia recovered 24%
North Macedonia recovered 12%

Belarus⮸

Population $9,449,323$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $68,067$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(9.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67,344.2}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 72.0)}}\) (asimptote \(67,344.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $567$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(69.1 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{629.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 76.9)}}\) (asimptote \(629.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,604$ on 2020-08-02

Portugal⮸

Population $10,196,709$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $51,463$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.04 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{50,000.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 65.0)}}\) (asimptote \(50,000.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,738$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(544 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,635.4}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 40.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,635.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,741$ on 2020-08-02

Armenia⮸

Population $2,963,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $39,050$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,106.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 104.1)}}\) (asimptote \(43,106.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $754$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(29.3 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{847.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 95.5)}}\) (asimptote \(847.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,546$ on 2020-08-02

Russia⮸

Population $145,934,462$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $849,277$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(8.76 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{836,419.2}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 77.8)}}\) (asimptote \(836,419.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $14,104$ on 2020-08-02

Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,156.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 80.4)}}\) (asimptote \(15,156.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $186,212$ on 2020-08-02