Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $69,849$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.06 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{61,553.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(61,553.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,845$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(3.58 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(80.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,629.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,629.4\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $42,414$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $306,309$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(7.48 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{288,951.5}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 55.4)}}\) (asimptote \(288,951.5\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $46,286$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,057.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 48.1)}}\) (asimptote \(44,057.8\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $258,579$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $288,522$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(9.68 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(87.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{248,288.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 37.2)}}\) (asimptote \(248,288.4\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,445$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,850.0}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(27,850.0\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $109,701$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $248,070$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(8.7 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(89.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{238,290.8}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 44.0)}}\) (asimptote \(238,290.8\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,154$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,364.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(34,364.4\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,456$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $80,422$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(7.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,723.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 98.6)}}\) (asimptote \(91,723.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,743$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,555.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 54.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,555.8\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $74,679$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $225,198$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(6.88 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{199,311.4}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(199,311.4\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,268$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.09 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(82.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,390.7}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.8)}}\) (asimptote \(29,390.7\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $113,166$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $55,408$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(1.7 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(78.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{49,977.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 43.4)}}\) (asimptote \(49,977.0\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,169$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(2.29 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,078.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,078.8\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $49,033$ on 2020-08-02
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $26,162$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(8.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,364.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 44.5)}}\) (asimptote \(25,364.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,763$ on 2020-08-02
Best fit exponential: \(547 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(70.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,715.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,715.4\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,035$ on 2020-08-02